Pre-market Live and Options Picks for 01 29 2021

Let’s get right into the charts and take a look at what we’re looking at today pre-market. It’s funny, I was looking at MRNA last night because I knew NVAX was coming out with some news. I’m going to go ahead and blow my chart up, so you can see a little better. I don’t like taking these trades because they’ve already made a big push. There still might be a little bit of a push at the market open.

I’m expecting more downside action, if you will, with MRNA. I really like this [01:05] trade with the 200-strike price, but in my opinion this trade is gone for me. I’m not going to touch it. I feel like it would be more guessing and gambling rather than highly focused good setups with probability that haven’t made this run yet. A lot of people like to chase these things. What happens to dogs that chase tires? They get run over.

SWKS, Skyworks, it’s a tongue twister. Between MRNA, NVAX, and this stock, this is the last one that hasn’t made the run to 200. Let me zero out my line here [02:07]. I like this setup. I don’t know if I’ll be taking it. It’s nice trending up pre-market. We can get a nice push out of the gate to this [02:26] 200 and then down. There isn’t really a lot of room left there. I like this one. I was looking at NVAX, MRNA, and SWKS. Let’s go to NVAX. You will see that of the three, MRNA and NVAX are already well above 200 into the 220, 225 area. Some news about the vaccine approval, FDA, who knows.

The SWKS, Skyworks, this one is, I think, your best candidate if you want to take today’s expiration 200 strike. These are day-of expirations on a Friday, so your options are going to move crazy. If you get this [03:30] push to the 200, I would just sell immediately or wait for confirmation for the price action to break this [03:40] pre-market high, it was bullish, rather than trying to buy the dip.

Me, I like entering my positions on the five-minute time frame off of around the 20 stochastic or even the 20 RSI. There’s a lot more room to the downside. You can see this stochastic. It doesn’t always work too. If you would have gotten in here, [04:22] it was starting to make a retrace and then down she went. Then sure enough, she has to make her way all the way back to the top of the channel. We’re at the top now. We could like this, [04:39] come down, and then stay up, and then come down. It’s trading.

Over years of experience, and seeing things, and knowing how the market moves, and how stocks work, you get better and better. I would probably get into this [05:07] as maybe a dip buy opportunity to this 50-day simple moving average and then with the 200-strike price. If this pops out of the gate and just goes straight to 200, the trade is over, you missed it. You could get puts, I suppose. The 190 puts would be good the day of expiration if you get to 200. News, it’s an all-time high stock. It’s blue skies. They call it blue skies. It just can keep going on. I’ll have to be keeping an eye on SWKS. I don’t like FOMOing into things at the market open. I try to buy the dip or off the 20 stochastic is the best entry point.

Yesterday on INTC, for those traders who took that trade, I was buying it off of the stochastic 20. We got 100% return. I’ll show you exactly what happened and what I saw on INTC yesterday. It was right here [06:20]. I was like, okay, let me take this. It was up 30% flat, up 10% a little bit red, 5%, and then it was up 40%, and back to 10%, and then it was right in here that I was 95, 100%, and closed the remainder of my position. What do you know? Sure enough we go all the way right back down. We were also coming up not quite to the 70 RSI, but it’s a good exit point for you.

I like AMD. I’ll show you why. This is my thesis. This is my trade idea. This is my trade theory, my trade thesis, my trade plan on AMD. I know a 90 is an area of a lot of resistance. There’s also a lot of volume in this [07:26] 90 strike price for today. We’re so far away from the 90, it feels slightly like a lottery jackpot trade. We could just completely rip in the morning. We’ve got a little more time before the bell rings. AMD is so notorious for this [07:55], just straight up in the morning. What do we do? Fade the rest of the day. This [08:01] was after hours, but again dip, push, push up, pull back, push up.

Then one more thing I’ll show you on the AMD that you will appreciate. Let me go back to today. One more thing that I think you will appreciate is if I go out to the year-to-date on the daily timeframe, you can see we’re at this big, historic area right here [08:49]. We’re also coming down to the 13 stochastic. We’re not at the 20 RSI, but the stochastic on the daily, we are on a little bit of a down trend as well. I’d like to see a reversal today. A day of expiration options, you need to be quick with your market fill, or buy, market fill, order, sell.

I’m going to blow this back up one more time so you can see a little better. I’m going to get rid of this line. There’s some resistance up in here too. I feel like every brokerage firm these days is having issues. It’s not just one or the other. I like this [11:04] trade. It’s one of those unsuspecting ones, especially on the day time frame. We’re so down, and we have this gap window to fill. As long as SPY, and AAPL, and all the other ones are green, I like this [11:23] trade setup. It hasn’t made a big move yet. It’s unsuspecting.

SQ, this is the last one I’m going to show you. This one [11:35] is a good trade. I’m going to get the 230. I’ve got to wait. I’m not buying up here at the open. Hopefully, we get a little pull back. I’ll wait on this one. I’ll be patient on Square. I want to get the next week’s 230 calls. If I go to the year-to-date time frame, I didn’t catch this [12:07] right away, but you can see we just crossed over on the day time frame on the stochastic, this white line over the red line. We’re starting to make our way up to the upper channel.

I like this [12:32] as a swing trade for next week and get out somewhere around here [12:37], probably at the top of the channel at this 266 area, 252, 265, 260, 250, somewhere in there. Really, I’m just keeping an eye on the stochastic and my RSI. If I see we’re getting into some overbought territory is when I’ll probably pull the plug. We’re also compressing right here [13:08], and we’re starting to see this on the ADX crossover. We’re going to get a little bit of a trend possibly soon. I’m going to take off my ADX. I just don’t use it anymore. I keep things a little more simple.

That’s what I’ve got for today. Let’s have a good Friday. Good luck to all you traders. I’ll see you in the Slack and on the charts.

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